Ebola – Not The Threat To the US That You Think It Is

About 900 people have died of Ebola in the last 6 months. Should you be worried? If you don’t want to read the post, and are just looking for an answer: NO!

If you’re one of the people who is saying, “But they are bringing 2 Ebola patients to the U.S., and a man in New York is suspected of having the disease!!” then please, for the sake of everyone around you, keep reading.

Let’s take a look at Ebola first. What exactly is it? Ebola Virus Disease (in humans) is caused by one three species of Filoviridae viruses: Zaire, Sudan, and Bundibugyo. There are two other Ebola species, but they do not affect humans. Of the three species mentioned, Ebola Zaire is the nastiest, with anywhere from a 50-90% fatality rate – closer to 50% with supportive care and closer to 90% with no supportive care. Ebola is a hemorrhagic fever disease, characterized by high fever, shock, multiple organ failure, and subcutaneous bleeding. Typically, the patient first shows flu-like symptoms before progressing to the more characteristic bleeding symptoms. If the virus itself doesn’t kill you, oftentimes your own immune system will spiral out of control and send you into shock, and, most often, death.

Now that the bad part is over, let’s look at why it’s not as scary globally as you might think.

Strengths:                                                        Weaknesses:

High mortality rate                                      Only spread through body fluids

Ambiguous early symptoms                   Lacks a ubiquitous vector

3 – 21 day incubation period                  Physically impairs the victim

No treatment or cure

Although the number of strengths outweighs the number of weaknesses, the quality of the weaknesses far outweighs the strengths. Without being airborne or transmitted by some ubiquitous vector, it is unlikely that any disease will ever cause a pandemic (meaning, global effects). In addition to this, Ebola impairs its victims. Even the flu-like symptoms are enough to sway you from much human contact. The scariest part about Ebola is the incubation period. Someone may not show symptoms for up to 3 weeks after being exposed to the virus. While this, in concert with the ambiguous early symptoms, might keep the flame flickering, it isn’t enough to start a wildfire. Still not convinced? Let’s put the outbreak into perspective:

We are currently experiencing the largest and most deadly Ebola outbreak in recorded history. The death toll is almost to 900 in 6 months – less than the number of people who die every 6 months from hippopotamus attacks. The Spanish Flu of 1918, undoubtedly the worst pandemic in the history of mankind, infected about 30% of the people in the world and killed anywhere from 3-5% of the global population in a single year. If you see a grave marker with a death date anytime in 1918, chances are greater than not that the individual died from Spanish Flu. This astounding death toll was accomplished WITHOUT the advent of modern travel, i.e., no airplanes. The current Ebola outbreak has killed 900 people, or about 0.0000001% (1/10 millionth of a percent)of the world population. 900 out of about 7.3 billion people worldwide. Oh yea, the other thing? Ebola isn’t worldwide. It’s in Western Africa.

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The only time Ebola has ever really been outside of Africa is… well… never. The closest we’ve come to that is recently bringing two patients to the US for treatment. 2 patients that will likely not even be exposed to US air or land for the next 2 weeks, as they were flown in on a plane with a quarantine chamber and are now isolated in a hospital ward in one of the top hospitals in the US.

I’m not trying to downplay the seriousness of Ebola from the safety of my suburban coffee shop. Yes, it would be scary if I were living in Sierra Leone. Not so much because I have a high chance of contracting Ebola, but because I don’t know where it might be lurking. And, if I did contract it, I’d be more miserable and frightened in the next two weeks than I’d ever been in my life. I would only be relieved of this misery by multiple organ failure and bleeding out of eyes until I died, or the less likely chance that I survive. Ebola is a terrible, nasty disease, but it’s not a global threat nor is it a U.S. threat.

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